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Market panorama. 20 novembre 2017

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I. Market focus:

20/11/2017

At the beginning of the new week, investors focus was on the reports about a collapse in German political talks to set up a coalition government, putting the current chancellor Angela Merkel’s fourth term in doubt. The media reported that three German parties - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU), led by Angela Merkel, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the left-leaning the Green Party - failed to reach an agreement to form the ruling majority coalition. These negotiations lasted two months. Merkel announced her intention to discuss the current situation with Germany's president Frank-Walter Steinmeier. There are two ways out of this situation: to form a minority government for the first time in the history of Germany or fresh elections. Given the growing popularity of the extreme right-wing nationalist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered parliament in Germany for the first time, the second option is seen very undesirable for the three parties involved in the coalition negotiations, since their positions may weaken even more after the election. Therefore, if negotiations are not resumed, the minority government will most likely be formed. The absence of a majority government will negatively affect the authority of Angela Merkel in Europe, where Germany now plays a key role in ensuring unity of the union. As a result, this can lead to increased disagreements and political crisis in the EU. The markets, especially the euro, reacted very negatively to the morning reports from Germany.

Today's session will not be very busy with scheduled events and macroeconomic data releases of high importance. Investors will pay attention to the speeches of the ECB president Mario Draghi in the European Parliament (at 14:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT) as well as the comments of the deputy governor of the Bank of England (BoE) David Ramsden (18:30 GMT). But the focus of the market participants will be on the formation of the new German government. In the coming days, this topic, along with the U.S. tax reform and the Brexit negotiations will continue to be the main theme for the markets.


II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada reported Friday that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1 m-o-m in October, following a 0.2 percent m-o-m growth in September. On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate advanced 1.4 percent last month after gaining 1.6 percent in the prior month. According to the report, prices grew in seven of the eight major components in the 12 months to October, with the transportation (+3.8 percent y-o-y) and shelter (+1.2 percent y-o-y) indexes contributing the most to the y-o-y rise in the CPI. Meanwhile, the clothing and footwear index (-1.5 percent y-o-y) was the sole decliner on a y-o-y basis. Economists had predicted inflation would increase 0.1 percent m-o-m and 1.4 percent y-o-y in October. The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index grew 0.9 percent y-o-y in October after gaining 0.8 percent in September.

  • The Commerce Department said Friday the building permits issued for privately owned housing units rose by 5.9 percent m-o-m in October to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.297 million, while housing starts boosted by 13.7 percent m-o-m to an annual rate 1.290 million. Economists had forecast housing starts growing to a 1.180 million-unit pace last month and building permits increasing to a 1.240 million-unit rate. According to the report, permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, rose 1.9 percent m-o-m to 839,000 in October, while approvals for the multi-family homes segment surged 13.9 percent m-o-m to a 458,000 unit-rate. In the meantime, groundbreaking on single-family homes rose 5.3 percent to an 877,000-unit pace in October, while housing starts for the multi-family segment soared by 36.8 percent to a 413,000-unit pace.

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil unchanged at 738 during the week ended November 17. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, increased by eight to 915, due to an increase in the gas rig count to 177 last week. The U.S. rig count is up 327 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 588.

  • The Ministry of Finance of Japan announced Sunday that the country’s trade balance came in at a surplus of a JPY285.36 bln in October, compared to a downwardly revised surplus of JPY668 bln in September (originally JPY670.17 billion) and a surplus of JPY481.16 billion in October 2016. Economists had projected JPY330.0 bln surplus for October. The report showed Japan’s exports increased slower than imports last month. Exports rose 14 percent y-o-y in October, following a 14.1 percent y-o-y climb in September, while imports surged 18.9 percent y-o-y last month, compared to a 12.0 percent y-o-y increase in a month earlier.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD fell sharply at the beginning of the session, refreshing its low of November 16, impacted by news the German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s efforts to form a coalition government collapsed. The pro-business the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) unexpectedly pulled out of the three-way coalition talks. The parties could not compromise on immigration and refugee policy. Merkel said she would consult with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on how to move forward. here are two ways out of this situation: to form a minority government for the first time in the history of Germany or fresh elections. Given the growing popularity of the extreme right-wing nationalist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered parliament in Germany for the first time, the second option is seen very undesirable for the three parties involved in the coalition negotiations, since their positions may weaken even more after the election. Therefore, if negotiations are not resumed, the minority government will most likely be formed. Today, investors will continue to monitor the formation of the new German government, as well as will pay attention to the speeches of the ECB president Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. Resistance level - $1.1821 (high of November 17). Support level - $1.1622 (low of November 10).

The currency pair GBP/USD recovered to the opening level after a moderate decline at the beginning of the session. With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Tomorrow, attention will be paid to the data on the UK’s public sector net borrowing for October. On Wednesday, the UK Treasury chief Philip Hammond will present his tax and spending plans. On Thursday, the focus will be on the report on business investment in the third quarter and revised data on the UK’s Q3 GDP. Resistance level - $1.3260 (high of November 17). Support level - $1.3130 (low of November 15).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded slightly higher, supported by higher commodities’ prices, as well as the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's release of the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The document contains a detailed description of the situation in the country’s economy, its financial sector, the global economy, examines the employment situation, lending and inflation, providing an in-depth understanding of the conditions that affected the RBA’s decision. The minutes are published two weeks after each meeting. Resistance level - AUD0.7650 (high of November 14). Support level - AUD0.7518 (low of June 9).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded in a narrow range, near the opening level. The Japanese trade balance data had little influence on the pair performance. The Ministry of Finance of Japan reported that the country’s trade balance came in at a surplus of a JPY285.36 bln in October, compared to a downwardly revised surplus of JPY668 bln in September (originally JPY670.17 billion) and a surplus of JPY481.16 billion in October 2016. Economists had projected JPY330.0 bln surplus for October. The report showed Japan’s exports increased slower than imports last month. Exports rose 14 percent y-o-y in October, following a 14.1 percent y-o-y climb in September, while imports surged 18.9 percent y-o-y last month, compared to a 12.0 percent y-o-y increase in a month earlier. Resistance level - Y113.32 (high of November 16). Support level - Y111.65 (low of October 16).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,578.85

-0.26%

Dow

23,358.24

-0.43%

NASDAQ

6,782.79

-0.15%

Nikkei

22,261.76

-0.60%

Hang Seng

29,199.04

+0.62%

Shanghai

3,393.02

+0.30%

S&P/ASX

5,945.67

-0.19%


U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Friday, as investors weighed the fate of the Republicans’ tax overhaul plan. The focus also was on the upbeat U.S. housing market data. The Commerce Department reported the building permits issued for privately owned housing units rose by 5.9 percent m-o-m in October to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.297 million, while housing starts boosted by 13.7 percent m-o-m to an annual rate 1.290 million. Economists had forecast housing starts growing to a 1.180 million-unit pace last month and building permits increasing to a 1.240 million-unit rate. According to the report, permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, rose 1.9 percent m-o-m to 839,000 in October, while approvals for the multi-family homes segment surged 13.9 percent m-o-m to a 458,000 unit-rate. In the meantime, groundbreaking on single-family homes rose 5.3 percent to an 877,000-unit pace in October, while housing starts for the multi-family segment soared by 36.8 percent to a 413,000-unit pace.
Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Monday after Wall Street provided a negative lead on Friday, while German political impasse caused some risk-aversion sentiment in the markets. The Japanese stocks fell as the official report showed Japanese export growth weakened unexpectedly in October and the yen remained firm against the U.S. dollar.

European stock indexes are expected to trade lower in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.33% (-2 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.35% (-1 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.30% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in January settled at $56.61 (-0.18%). The crude oil prices fell slightly as the U.S. dollar strengthened, and investors awaited the OPEC/Non-OPEC ministerial meeting on November 30 in Vienna. At the meeting, the major oil producers are expected to decide whether to continue output cuts aimed at propping up prices. The focus also remained on the latest report from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil unchanged at 738 during the week ended November 17. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, increased by eight to 915, due to an increase in the gas rig count to 177 last week. The U.S. rig count is up 327 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 588.

Gold traded at $1290.50 (-0.14%). Gold prices dropped slightly as the U.S. currency demonstrated the broad strengthening. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.29 percent to $93.93. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


11:00

Germany

Bundesbank Monthly Report

12:15

Eurozone

ECB's Lautenschläger Speech

14:00

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

14:15

Eurozone

ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks

15:00

U.S.

Leading Indicators

16:00

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

18:30

United Kingdom

MPC Member Ramsden Speaks



Mise au point du marché

  • Euro Area trade balance surplus declined significantly in August
  • Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September,
  • US consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 says UoM
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
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